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Political efforts on employment face limits in Japan
(Yomiuri Shimbun, The (Tokyo) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) TOKYO _ As the employment crisis continues following the global financial slump, the government and ruling parties are struggling to draft measures to assist Japanese workers.
The government and ruling parties hope to avoid a crisis in the nation's employment system by taking a lead and drafting measures aimed mainly at securing jobs for non-regular workers. But such moves are likely to encounter difficulties as any initiative should be based on efforts by employers.
"If the unemployment rate rises to 6 percent or so, we assume that means another 1.65 million workers will lose jobs," said Jiro Kawasaki, chair of the ruling parties' project team for new employment security measures. "We've drafted the measure based on this assumption."
"The ongoing recession is more serious than the one five years ago," Kawasaki, a former health, labor and welfare minister, added after drafting the measures at the project team's meeting. "It's important for the government to send a message that government spending will be appropriate."
The nation's unemployment rate peaked at 5.5 percent in 2002 and 2003. Kawasaki said the team drafted its measures with a view to helping 1.4 million people keep their jobs as the jobless rate could exceed 6 percent. October's unemployment rate was 3.7 percent.
Economists say that a one percentage point rise in the unemployment rate is equivalent to about 700,000 people losing their jobs. The team therefore believes it can keep the unemployment rate two percentage points lower by stopping 1.4 million workers losing their jobs.
The government and ruling parties drafted the measures quickly out of concern about the potential social impact of the rapidly deteriorating employment outlook.
On Nov. 28, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry shocked the government and ruling parties when it announced 30,000 nonregular contract workers would likely lose their jobs in the six months from October.
The news came a day after Prime Minister Taro Aso called the policy research council chairmen of the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito to his office to tell them to draft a package of additional economic stimulus measures.
The ministry was not alone in its gloomy forecasts. The Dai-ichi Life Research Institute estimated the global financial crisis would boost the number of jobless in Japan by about 70,000 in fiscal 2008 and by a further about 200,000 in fiscal 2009.
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On Monday, Aso asked the Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren) and other major business organizations to help secure workers' jobs. Yet the same week, it was reported that Canon Inc. and Toshiba Corp. planned to cut the workforces at their plants in Oita Prefecture.
Canon Chairman Fujio Mitarai also is chairman of Nippon Keidanren, and Toshiba Chairman Tadashi Okamura is president of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry. It is an indication of how much the employment situation has deteriorated that representatives of such organizations had to turn down the prime minister's request.
But with companies tending to base their decisions on management needs, Aso remarked, "It's difficult for the government to intervene through administrative action."
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In addition, the government also has to grapple with the so-called 2009 problem with nonregular contract workers.
The previous revision of the Worker Dispatch Law, in 2004, lifted the ban on the dispatch of temp staff to manufacturing jobs. Initially, the length of such contracts was limited to a year, but was extended to three years in March 2007. In anticipation of the contract period extension, many companies accepted temp staff from 2006, meaning many of these contracts expire in 2009.
Another major problem is that many university and high school students who were to join companies next spring had their provisional job offers canceled. As of Nov. 25, 87 companies had withdrawn job offers made to 331 students.
Some economists have said the government's stimulus measures will not show immediate benefits. Meanwhile, all of the planned measures need budgetary allocations and will be implemented only in the new year, with a sizable number also needing revisions of laws that can only be implemented after fiscal 2009 begins on April 1.
On the contents of the stimulus, a senior labor ministry official said, "There are no measures that particularly stand out (as effective)."
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The ruling parties' project team has implicitly admitted the planned measures will have a limited impact. "It's necessary to stimulate demand and create jobs through a tax cut policy and government spending," one team member said.
One senior ruling party member also admitted: "We can't guarantee that the latest measures will create new jobs. They're just for helping those already in work keep theirs."
At a meeting of the House of Representatives Budget Committee on Friday, opposition parties were unanimous in criticizing Aso for being too slow in developing employment measures, following his decision not to submit a second supplementary budget for fiscal 2008 at the current Diet session.
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With an eye on the next lower house election, the opposition parties are now considering pushing the government to introduce strong employment-related measures by highlighting their own plans.
"Just prolonging (submission of the supplementary budget) until January without even presenting a single bill on employment measures isn't about a political vacuum _ it's about blocking or sabotaging efforts to deliver policies," snapped Naoto Kan, acting leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan. He was the first opposition lawmaker to stand up during the committee's question and answer session.
Aso looked angry as he gave his riposte.
"From the public's point of view, I wonder which (is worse): the LDP's sabotage or the DPJ's sabotage in the House of Councillors?" he said. He went on to criticize the DPJ, saying the party had delayed an upper house vote on a bill to revise the Law on Special Measures for Strengthening Financial Functions for injecting public funds into financial institutions.
The opposition parties' plan now is to compile their own economic and employment measures and to shine a spotlight on the policymaking inertia of the government and ruling parties with their postponement of submitting the supplementary budget.
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On Thursday, the DPJ drew up emergency employment measures for temporary workers and others who no longer have a place to live after being made redundant or having their contracts terminated. The measures include letting houses to such people and offering them a livelihood support allowance.
The Japanese Communist Party also compiled measures aimed at companies that have unilaterally withdrawn informal employment offers, and has urged greater supervision of such firms. On Friday, JCP Chairman Kazuo Shii made the unusual move of raising the issue with the prime minister. The Social Democratic Party, too, announced Friday an emergency proposal that included establishing a system to provide financial aid to support people who are jobless but who cannot receive unemployment benefits.
At the Budget Committee meeting Friday, the prime minister suggested that the ruling and opposition parties should hold a joint debate on employment measures.
"It would be a good opportunity to (discuss) it in different ways, such as through interparty debate or through policy debate," Aso said.
Kan also said Thursday: "It's something we must work on (urgently). We're ready to deal with this outside the Diet."
However, observers are skeptical whether such a debate is feasible.
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(c) 2008, The Yomiuri Shimbun.
Visit the Daily Yomiuri Online at http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/index-e.htm/
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
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Copyright ? 2008 The Yomiuri Shimbun
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