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The Sedalia Democrat, Sedalia, Mo., Seth Stringer column: Stringer: Stats pointed to Carpenter for Cy Young
Nov 20, 2009 (The Sedalia Democrat - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) --
While he didn't garner the endorsement of the Baseball Writers' Association of America on Thursday, Chris Carpenter can take solace in the fact that Tim Lincecum and teammate Adam Wainwright saw him as the best pitcher in the National League.
"I would like to see Carpenter because of his comeback," Lincecum told the San Francisco Chronicle back in early October. "He's put up pretty crazy numbers."
The crazy numbers included a league-best 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .810 win percentage.
But to the voters, the numbers didn't deserve top honors. Instead, he'll have to settle on being NL Comeback Player of the Year -- an award he has no intent on winning again.
A mere 10 points separated the top three aces for the NL Cy Young, but in the end, Tim Lincecum joined the elite company of Sandy Koufax, Denny McLain, Jim Palmer, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson with his second-straight award.
Nicknamed everything from The Freak to The Franchise, and even Seabiscuit in college, the undersized San Francisco ace needed only 15 victories to earn the award -- the fewest for a Cy Young starter over a non-shortened season -- and is the first back-to-back recipient of the Cy Young (that debuted in 1956) since The Big Unit won the award four years straight from 1999-2002.
Similar to the debate waged after Steve Nash won his second-straight NBA MVP trophy, did Lincecum at the ripe age of 25 years old deserve to be clumped into a group of current and future Cooperstown inductees?
Looking at the numbers, I'd argue no.
Not that the 5-foot, 11-inch phenom wasn't deserving for consideration after posting ace-type numbers, but it looks like he benefited from a series of issues that shouldn't have swayed voters.
First off, St. Louis ran away with the NL Central division, putting Carpenter and Wainwright in the spotlight. In posting similar numbers, the two were their own worst enemies, which likely split the decision between Midwest voters. The evidence lies in the fact that Wainwright, who's nomination was centered on wins, received 12 first-place votes, one more than Lincecum, while Carpenter garnered only nine.
Second, name value played a role. Starring in ESPN commercials and depicted on the cover for MLB 2K9, a popular video game, Lincecum became the face for the NL. Analysts attributed his success to the Giants' improbable run and he became a topic for discussion every time he took the mound. Carpenter, on the other hand, sat out a month with oblique problems and everyone worried when the next injury would surface as he quietly put up overpowering numbers.
Aside from leading the league in ERA, WHIP and win percentage, the 34-year-old 2005 Cy Young winner also posted two more wins than Lincecum. The main drawback in Carpenter's case was his lack of strikeouts, but from past history strikeouts have never been a decisive factor -- evidenced by Nolan Ryan's lack of Cy Young hardware. But to address the disparity, Lincecum's 261 Ks dwarfed Carpenter's 144, and he also led the league in quality start percentage (.810) and batting average against (.206), stats that are usually overlooked.
But what's hard to overlook is the "holy trinity" of pitcher's stats. Even in the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park, Lincecum's ERA (2.48), WHIP (1.05) and wins (15) were second to Carpenter.
An argument can be made that Carpenter didn't pitch the whole season, but Carpenter nearly eclipsed the 200-inning mark with 28 starts (averaging 7.14 innings a start), proving his month off and should be a non-factor.
This simple logic, however, was lost to the majority of voters. The concrete stats baseball routinely lives by took a back seat to biases. Keith Law, a celebrated baseball writer for ESPN.com, and Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, even left Carpenter off their ballots. Careless omission? No. Instead, Law opted to give Javier Vasquez a second-place vote while Carrol gave Dan Haren a third-place nod.
Sound like individuals you want deciding the Cy Young?
Instead, how about trusting the opinions of the nominees and players. Because if Wainwright and Lincecum had a vote, the outcome would have been different.
To see more of The Sedalia Democrat or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to
http://www.sedaliademocrat.com. Copyright (c) 2009, The Sedalia Democrat,
Sedalia, Mo. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For
reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or
847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group
Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.
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